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Notebook 20 June

 
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:24 am    Post subject: Notebook 20 June Reply with quote

Addikt - 20 Jun 2008 18:50 - Goodwood, 1m 1f 192y
Sunnyside Tom - 20 Jun 2008 16:00 - Musselburgh, 1m 0f 0y
Bassinet - 20 Jun 2008 19:05 - Newmarket, 1m 4f 0y
Reve Vert - 20 Jun 2008 19:35 - Newmarket, 1m 0f 0y
Savannah Poppy - 20 Jun 2008 21:10 - Newmarket, 0m 5f 0y
Carnivore - 20 Jun 2008 17:30 - Royal Ascot, 0m 7f 0y
Docofthebay - 20 Jun 2008 17:30 - Royal Ascot, 0m 7f 0y
Prior Warning - 20 Jun 2008 17:30 - Royal Ascot, 0m 7f 0y


Although not bred to get 10f Addikt has been shaping like a step up in trip would suit. At shorter distances he tends to get outpaced but stays on really well to be nearest at the finish. There is a danger that with the step up to 10f that he'll hit the front at the furlong mark but be outstayed in the final furlong. I'll be splitting my stake into two - one for a pre-race bet, then another IR bet at a higher price in case he again hit's a flat spot 3f out and drifts IR. I'll be looking to green sub 3.0 but this fellow come with an IR warning since he's been found wanting at shorter distances he's yet to trade much lower IR than it's BFsp although last time his BFsp was 12.89 but he did hit 55.0 IR before dropping to 10.5
What did Hughes think he was doing. he rode him for a burst of speed whereas he should have been rowing away on him from 4f out - not 2f out Sad

Sunnyside Tom did us proud last time and although likely to be very short today showed a willing attitude and as the youngest of the party is still open to improvement. He beat Stellite last time who was on a hat-trick the pair over three lengths clear. Just a straight win bet here.
This guy is tough. Maybe I should have a second bet when he get's challenged since he pulls out more - only 6/4 but every bit helps

Bassinet is still a maiden and is becoming a bit of a professional loser but is trading gold. Although she's been placed in her last 5 races she's looked well capable of winning this sort of race. In her last three start she's traded at 2.4, 2.6 and 1.2 IR. She always makes headway and threatens and who knows maybe today she'll tear up her maiden tag.
That's Better - Backed at 6.8 and traded my stake and some small green at 2.7 and left the rest for the win Smile Smile Smile


I'm not sure stepping up in grade and distance is the right move for Reve Vert. Raced very keenly over 7f last time travelling well just behind a close knit leading group, joining the front rank 1f out but was one paced. She could well be a monster price today in which case it might be worth trying to trade out if she's travelling well mid-race - small stakes though. I still think dropped back to class 6 and dropped to 6f is the best move.
As expected pulled far too hard over this mile and started to fade from just over a furlong out. Get it back to 6f and down to Class 6 - it was actually backed from 30 into 15's on BF!!

Savannah Poppy's is still lightly raced and the step back to 5f last time was a mistake. She returns to the scene of her notebook entry race but stay at 5f. Even though she races keenly I'm not sure she has the pace to win over 5f, but this is only her fifth start so if the price is big enough 15+ I might be temped to have a small wager - just in case.
Non Runner

At the age of 6 the 7f specialist Carnivore could still be improving. Lightly raced as a 2 and 3yo he won his first race aged 4 when rated 54. By the end of the season after two more wins he was rated 76. Last year he had just the one win and finished off the season rated 80. He was backed in from 14/1 into 15/2 in a cl3 hcap earlier this month finishing very well having been tapped for toe. I can't help feeling that this class 2 race might be on the ambitious side. I might have a small bet at the current 25+ since he did make such a good seasonal debut and a strongly run 7f will suit.
Back down to Cl3 or Cl4 and we'll have another look

I left Docofthebay out on Wednesday and he traded at 2.12 IR. I'll not make the same mistake today.
Traded sub 2.3, but I'm not too sure why - still it helped my out Smile

Do I smell a plot in the shape of the 36+ (was 50) priced dual listed race winner in France - Prior Warning? Last year he ran US ranger to 4l with the 3rd placed runner going on to win a Grade 3 Hcap at SANTA ANITA in April 08. He had a couple of races this year which allowed his Hcap mark to drop to 99 from which he was given
an interesting ride with today’s pilot on top at Newmarket in Late May. Just looked at the BF forum and see that mr moloko put this one up last night when it was 50/1 ......
May have been a plot but it fell on it's face
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