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Patternform Experiment in OLBG

 
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 3120

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:09 pm    Post subject: Patternform Experiment in OLBG Reply with quote

Some of you guys might be interested in a simple approach of selecting the top two on the default ratings which is making hay at the moment:

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As with all thing as soon an real money is used the purple patch will no doubt turn to blue.
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kilkennycat



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yesterday was the best day so far, especially at Roscommon where there was over 50 points profit.
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dagil



Joined: 23 Jul 2008
Posts: 62

PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't really know how this will go long term.
I do hope kilkennycat will keep us posted.

It is a great pity that kilkennycats system based on PF is not being posted here where it belongs but on another web site by the way. IMO it should have been be posted here.

I have tried similar systems using PF (and other) ratings and as I understand from reading PF many others have as well , with or without filters.

Backing two horses to win in every race of the day cannot make a long term profit IMO regardless of the ratings used.

I hope this theory above proves me wrong

The profits all seem to come from hitting the odd big priced winner, which I will not dispute does happen as I have witnessed it does but it seems it cannot be maintained as such, in my experience.

However, why not turn it all upside down ? ... Take a look at the bottom of the PF ratings and lay that horse ... when the price is right for you?

See my post on Night Rocket under lays. This horse was fav and bottom rated on PF.


Not so many selections at the prices (liability) that may be on offer I agree but a lot less outlay and risk for sure in the long term. I think?
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 3120

PostPosted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have no problem with patternform being discussed and used on other forums even in preference to this location.

I also think it's unlikely to continue generating profits but that it's been able to generate 5k profits (without commission being considered) with £40 per race over three and a half weeks (with the break last weekend) is interesting.

There must have been around £40k stakes which equates to around 2k in commission which gives a profit of 3k or 7.5% of stake (ball park figures here - 1.6k over 25 days is my estimate for stake)

The lay approach is interesting and the Doug based system has been generating profits for over a year from lay - so plenty of miles to go there.
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kilkennycat



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 1:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With £5000 profits if I was after paying £2000 in comission I'd kill someone Laughing . The total comission was done by someone before yesterdays results and it came to just under £900.

Sorry for not posting here but I don't think it would have the same amount of views (has had over 2600 views in the last 2 days)

Thanks again Martin for a great tool Very Happy
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 3120

PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 2:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry about that kilkennycat but I had taken a quick look at the first post from the OLBG thread which was 11-Jul-2008 and had assumed it had been sequential since - I've just noticed that the second day was the 23-Jul-2008 - very sloppy of me - sorry again
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kilkennycat



Joined: 26 Jun 2008
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No problem Martin, I will be taking a break from doing the blog for about a month or so due to work commitments, so Sunday will probably be the last day for a while.
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