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Notebook 28 june

 
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:34 am    Post subject: Notebook 28 june Reply with quote

Sweet Lightning - 28 Jun 2008 14:50 - Chester, 1m 4f 66y
Brasingaman Hifive - 28 Jun 2008 17:05 - Chester, 0m 7f 2y
It's A Dream - 28 Jun 2008 19:45 - Doncaster, 1m 0f 0y
Poppy's Rose - 28 Jun 2008 21:20 - Doncaster, 0m 7f 0y
Redford - 28 Jun 2008 15:55 - Newcastle, 0m 7f 0y
Bourse - 28 Jun 2008 17:35 - Newcastle, 1m 0f 0y
Aphrodisia - 28 Jun 2008 16:40 - Newmarket, 1m 0f 0y
Dressed To Dance - 28 Jun 2008 16:50 - Windsor, 0m 6f 0y

I'll try and put some comments up later
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Martinkil
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 3179

PostPosted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sweet Lightning - backed from 25/1 into 14/1 last time in a class 4 race. Took time to get going so we should be looking to back him IR at a better price to lay once he picks up. My main concern is that with Chester's turning track and short straight he may not have time to look threatening enough during the race, although being fav if he does get going in time his price could well plummet.
Nothing in this race could get him outpaced and he never traded much bigger than the 3.8 (did trade 4.9 but I wanted more), so no bet today Sad
Sill a nice winner from a notebook perspective


Brasingaman Hifive - NR

It's A Dream - Travelled really well when winning last time in a class 5 race. Up in grade and favourite tonight could well win again but is a bit short at it's current 3.3
Went out to 4.4 so had a bet. Then back into 3.8 - layed back at 2.2 and 1.3 for a little green Smile - just outpointed by the runner which beat it a few runs bacl - Paraguy

Poppy's Rose - Difficult to know if this filly is just tripless or a bit of a coward when challenged. Has been racing between 8 and 6f. Has a burst of speed during the race which usually see's her trade much lower IR but is often one pace thereafter. Last race so trading is likely to be thin.

Redford - Famous last words, but this is almost a free bet the way he has travelled in his last two races. Traded at 2.0 in the Britannia when he came tanking through two out and will no doubt trade similarly again today. His price at 3.3 doesn't give much away but laying back at 2.0 or a little higher would give a free 5/4 bet.
I chickened out and went for the free 5/4 bet - short but nice Smile

Bourse - Won a grade 6 race over a mile and has run in class 5 (8f) and class 4 (12f) since the last run being very poor. I'll wait for a drop to class 5 or 6 before looking at him again.
Made a nice mid-race move but in this grade couldn't go on. Needs a drop into class 5 or 6

Aphrodisia - Up in grade tonight and would need improve to win this. But did win very well last time and at the price of 9+ it could be worth the risk.
It could have been the rise in class or the slow pace but she could manage only third without ever dropping in price.


Dressed To Dance - This should be fun and will no doubt test my nerve. Drawn high so will have a wall of runner to traverse and will no doubt be under pressure after the first furlong. But with Peter Island in the race and a field of 15 we'll no doubt have the strong pace we need. Around 6.4 I'll be looking to get 10+ IR.
I put some up at 10+ but her running style is very well known now it wasn't matched an I managed to get a little on at 8.0 (it was matched just before I was about to change it to 5.0) - let it all ride as she was storming home with a clear run. Hat-trick filly has done me proud
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